SIMPLIFICATION

There is a temptation, when faced with complexity, to reduce and simplify. That is sometimes necessary, even good, but how much simplification does this complex market allow before it punishes you, not for simplifying, but for being simple? That is the question all traders face everyday. There is no easy answer but finding an acceptable, workable answer will make you a winning trader. It will require you to grapple with this complexity and find your own way through the maze. If I am making it sound difficult then let me say that it really isn't. It's not a stroll, but most people will manage if they apply the basic rules. There are buyers and there are sellers. Sometimes the buyers are in charge and the market moves up. Other times it is the sellers and the market moves down. And sometimes the buyers and the sellers are slugging it out with neither gaining the ascendancy and the market moves side-ways. But within this seemingly simple ‘battle' a lot is going on behind the scenes.

PRACTICAL ASPECTS

Let's take a very brief look at some of the practical aspects of my approach to trading. Remember, it's mine, you can use it, but adapt it, personalize it to fit you. 1. Business plan - My trading system starts with proper goal setting and a well-defined business plan. Understand that you have embarked on a business venture. Unrealistic expectations can be one of your biggest enemies. What is it that you want? Not what you think you want or think you ought to want. What is it that you really want? You will be surprised how, after a little examination, you may come up with goals that are different, even very different from what you thought. I want to make money is not a goal. A goal is I want to make money because….or I want to make money in order to….and that ‘because' or that ‘in order to' is critical to your trading success. It is about being realistic and honest with yourself. Whatever your goals are, make sure you keep your feet on the ground. Always ask yourself this simple question: Am I trying to achieve the impossible? You cannot make returns of 100% on capital per month. Yet there are service providers selling this absurdity to the public. You may be lucky and do it once using high gearing but I guarantee you this: you will not do it month after month. Unscrupulous service providers are after your money. Don't believe their promises or stories. "Open an account with just $500.00. It gives you buying power of $100,000!" This is a business - your business, don't confuse it with buying a lottery ticket while running errands. Your business plan is an organized process to work towards those goals. Both the setting of realistic long-term goals and the concept of a business plan should place you in a frame of mind that will increase your chances of making a success of your trading. The business plan should include certain "what if" scenarios, the usual "S-W-O-T" (strengths-weaknesses- opportunities-threats) analysis, market research and several other aspects peculiar to a trading business. Reading this book will contribute to your general market research and the development of a profitable business plan you can implement. It even gives some strategic guidelines and methodological pointers. It is not a 1-2-3-you're-a-millionaire-if-you-do- exactly-this-or-your-money-back-guaranteed-guide. 2. 4x1 strategy - To implement my business plan, I have a 4x1 strategy, one currency, one lot, one direction, one percent One currency Concentrate on one currency. Get to know it. Don't jump back and forth. One lot Low gearing. Small position size. One direction Trade in the direction of the "fundamental" trend. Be disciplined and patient. One Percent (1%) Understand profit – what it is and when to take money off the table 3. Median trading - The specific methodology I use to make the nitty-gritty trading decisions I call "median trading". Those of you who may have been around the block a few times, will immediately recognise that the parameters of this methodology are neither original nor new and are used by other successful traders. It remains an interesting, and perhaps instructive fact, that many successful traders use much the same basic principles. My 4x1 strategy is deployed within a comfort zone I get by ‘snapping' a static picture of the market and fixing it in my ‘median grid' based on the principle that price always reverts to a median. My median grid is divided into price levels. This is an important concept. Exactly because intra day pricing is virtually random I substitute fretting about entries and exits at specific prices with a system of identifying ever changing buying and selling price levels of 20 – 50 pips, depending on relevant factors such as account size, gearing and so on. This provides a comfort zone because there is a high probability that immediate future price action will occur within this demarcated zone. It provides flexibility and room-for-error (another very important concept in discretionary trading), in which both discretionary and non-discretionary technical trading produces good results. Price levels, rather than specific prices at specific moments in time are buying and selling zones. This also determines the time frame I use. I use a time frame that I feel is "manageable". This means I can relate cause and effect (information and resulting price action / price changes). When I can't I can't. I call it noise and ignore it, rather than find a reason just in order to say I have one. I accept it. The market moved. That's it, let's get on with things. No one can tell you what is happening all the time. I can also anticipate price changes based on known future events. I can gauge the size of the price move based on the impact of the event. I can also discern between noise (meaningless price changes), trend following / supporting / enhancing price changes or trend changing price changes. 4. Relational analysis - Unlike many other good, successful traders who rely solely on technical analysis, I make a lot of use of fundamental analysis (anything that is not technical or psychological). I believe in a holistic approach, the more relevant analysis you include in your trading decision- making the better the decision-making is going to be. Relational analysis is what brings it all together, the meaningful relating, one to the other, and all to one, of Price, Event, and Time (PET). You must learn to ‘see' connections which are not obvious. This applies especially to major fundamental trends. What are the factors at play today that will cause us to look back in three months' time and with the perfect science of hindsight see the obvious trend. If you can see the trend developing with that type of foresight today you are 90% of the way there.

REAL TIME

Why the emphasis on "real time"? It is absolutely crucial that one considers the changes that occurred between the pre-information age (computer and connectivity) and the furnace of the information age – trading in the global financial markets. Except for the military no industry contributed more than the international financial markets to meeting the need for real time information delivered through different mediums. The fact that we have this technology must not be underestimated. If you don't understand this, the affect of real time events, and even the real affect of fictitious events on the currency markets, then you are once again bird watching in lion country. We will examine, in some detail, what real time analysis means, but for now you must know that my approach to currency trading is rooted in the here and now, the reality of what is happening around me. This may seem obvious but it is not, and it is the key to trading success in the currency markets. A lot of people think they know how to listen and what to listen for. They make a few good "calls" and their confidence in the system they are developing is high. Then the market goes against them for some time and they feel let down, upset, on the wrong end. They haven't been listening. They've been eavesdropping. Being able to ‘listen', to really listen to what the market, the here and now, the reality, is telling you, is a skill you must develop. The currency market is like a symphony orchestra. There are several instruments all contributing to the creation of a harmonious whole, in this case, the price. The price is precisely what it is, no more, no less, but its very impersonality belies the fact that a multitude of individual contributing factors have come together, and are constantly coming together, in an ongoing real time process of ever changing events. To understand how an entire orchestra produces its sound you need to know what role the individual instruments play, the violin, cello, kettledrums, the flute. The more proficient you get at ‘listening' to the market, the better you will become at identifying discordant sounds and like the conductor asking the violinists to pick up the tempo or indicating to the kettle drums to be a touch more retiring, you will act depending on what you hear. Unlike some trading systems, my system begins before any buy or sell buttons are pushed. It includes for example my goals, because these have a direct bearing on when I push the buy or sell buttons. Unsuccessful trading can result from factors that have nothing to do with the market. Trading is not simply about analysing price charts. It is also about realistic goals, proper business plans, the sober implementation of strategies and then developing and refining a methodology.

A Trading System

My actual trading is based on what I call Real Time Analysis. My approach is discretionary. I do not subscribe to the myth of non-discretionary trading. I do not believe that mechanical trading can deliver extraordinary results. Discretion comes in many forms. You use your discretion in selecting a learning source, in subscribing to this technical analysis indicator rather than that one, or in deciding on the value of simplistic indicators versus complex indicators. If you are an expert you can do all of these with much greater certainty that your choice is likely to be a good one. If you're a beginner you may very well set off on the wrong path.

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But they don't fluctuate like MT4 brokers.